Weather Forecasting: An Incentive for Farmers

Let’s face it; everybody needs good weather to pursue their daily activities. However, while most professionals can make do with bad weather, the farmer cannot. If the weather is bad; no water, too much water, whatever, it can stop crops from growing. Therefore, farmers need to know when to plant and harvest crops. And weather is extremely important for the growing of food crops and vegetables, and the raising of livestock.

Weather forecasting has always been an important aspect of the life of farmers.  From time immemorial, farmers have interpreted weather conditions in order to prepare their lands, determine the type of crops to cultivate and what time to do so.  Those were times when the weather conditions were stable and predictions accurate; therefore, farming was pleasant and productive. 

In fact, at that time, the old man in the village could predict when it was going to rain and in the words of Charles Yorke of the Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet), “the old man’s prediction was about 90 % accurate all of the time.”  But things have changed and farmers are now no longer at ease.  Now, the old man can no longer precisely predict weather signs to aid farmers in their activities.

Transformation in the weather including changes in the onset of the seasons, erratic rainfall, and increasing heat that are all climate change related events,  have rendered useless indigenous weather forecasting.  This state of affairs, which has negatively impacted on the activities and lives of ordinary farmers, has become a major source of concern for agricultural experts, scientists, economists, researchers and agro-businesses.  This is because of its implications for food security, nutritional status and the general well-being of the people.

In spite of these challenges, weather forecasting can still be done and information packaged and disseminated on timely basis to meet the needs of farmers and other institutions like the Ghana Civil Aviation Authority, Ghana Airport Company, and the Ghana Ports and Harbour Authority as well as the corporate bodies that work closely with them. They rely on the Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet), for weather information to make vital decisions concerning their daily activities. 

The subject of identifying, packaging and providing practical and useable weather information to vulnerable groups like farmers, was the focus of discussions at a recent meeting in Accra of a multidisciplinary group of scientists, users of weather information including farmers and intermediaries from Ghana, and international experts. The June 5^th, 2014, meeting was organized by the Africa Climate Exchange (AfClix), CARE Ghana and GMet with the support of the Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, the University of Reading and the UK based Natural Environment Research Council.

 

Mr. Yorke who talked about the current weather trends said “the long dry spells have become a headache for farmers, and when the rains come they are torrential and do not augur well for farmers and herders.”  He added, “the onset of the rainy season has changed, the amount of rainfall has changed and the rainy days now reduced from 25 days continues previously, to one to three days…” Mr. Yorke also explained that “the information GMet provides on the onset date of the rains, is meant for agricultural extension workers to advice farmers on the type of crops they should select for cultivation within that period.”

The essence of such information is that the various crops have differing water requirements, and may or may not do well depending on the amount of water they are exposed to and the timing of the rains.  For instance, “early millet,” has to be cultivated at a particular time to coincide with on set of the rains at a certain time, once that time expires, the crop will not do well. Some of the participants expressed concerned that the “early millet,” could become extinct, hence, the need for agricultural scientists to propagate varieties that are weather tolerant.

Mr. Yorke pointed out that the manner in which media houses announce weather forecasts makes the information irrelevant.  ‘Weather information,” he said, “is meant for a particular time, once the time elapses even for one hour, the information is no longer useful, since by that time, the weather condition predicted would have already manifested.”

Romanous Gyang of CARE Ghana Tamale office, elaborated on the organisation’s project in the East Mamprusi and Garu Tempane Districts of the Northern region. He noted that farmers in these districts have low capacities to adapt to climate change because of “lack of access to weather forecast information for agricultural planning, user unfriendliness of climate information, seasonal forecast that do not meet the short term information needs of farmers, weak climate information communication systems and mistrust of climate information sources.” He called for intensive nationwide public education on climate change. 

Mohammed Issifu of ESOKO an agricultural oriented firm, said the company has established a powerful technical platform that provides special services including weather information to farmers and prices of 56 agricultural products to traders among other groups of people.

Esoko in partnership with aWhere, Inc. has embarked upon an innovative scheme to provide weather related information to farmers. Known as Real-time, it is a platform that provides climate smart recommendations and alerts via innovative use of mobile phone technology (an SMS platform) to give farmers in rural communities real-time weather data in a move to increase their yields. This deal will enable small-scale farmers in Ghana to receive daily text messages with localized weather information on precipitation, temperature, wind speed, humidity, and growing degree days among others.

Benedictta Fosu Mensah of the Institute of Environment and Sanitation Studies, University of Ghana, briefed the meeting about the CLIM-WARN system, a project of UNEP, which is a UN-wide multi-hazard global early warning system for climate-related extreme weather events. The system, which is still in its formulating stage, will when completed, issue warnings to the most severely affected regions of the world - allowing sufficient time possibly between six months to ten years for these regions to respond to the situation. This is important because, the range of current climate-related early warning systems remains far removed from what is actually needed and what is technically feasible.

The meeting also discussed the relevance of early warning systems that can provide timely weather information for specific areas.  Generators of weather information were cautioned against the dangers of generalizing weather information meant for a particular area, as it tends not be applicable for another area and often results in mistrust of such information. 

Dr. Ros Cornforth of Rainwatch-AfClix said the programme is to be extended to Ghana this year, and the main trust will be to collaborate with GMet to generate and package accurate, usable early warning climate information to vulnerable communities and ordinary people. There are plans to further extend the programme to Burkina Faso, Nigeria and Sudan.

The Rainwatch-AfClix programme is currently operational in Senegal, Mali and Niger – where it is working with the government to understand how the rainfall pattern is evolving. Dr. Cornforth  hoped that the system generated will be relevant throughout the West African sub-region  and, in the long term, contribute to the design of robust multi-hazard early warning systems across the wider continent.

But even before this happens, the capacity of GMet and other organizations can be further enhanced to provide the much needed weather forecasts to assist farmers. This development is critical because according to K.K. Singh of the India Meteorological Department, weather and climate information plays a major role before and during the cropping season. In a paper on weather forecasting and agromet advisory services in India, he says, “if provided in advance, weather and climate information can be helpful in inspiring farmers to organize and activate their own resources in order to reap the benefits.”

Moreover, reliable and timely forecasting provides important and useful input for proper foresighted and informed planning, and for agro-policy development. Experts say that when climate information is blended with seasonal climate forecasts before the start for the cropping season, it enables the agricultural system to adapt to increased weather inconsistencies.  Furthermore, timely weather forecasting helps in the development of agro- based advisories thatare vital for famers to stabilize crop yields through management of agro-climatic resources and other inputs such as irrigation, fertilizers and pesticides.

The Director of IFAD’s Environment and Climate Division, Elwyn Grainger-Jones, believes that “more information means farmers can plan more effectively, optimizing their management in light of forecasted weather, and so reducing crop losses or increasing potential gains.” In a statement on IFAD’s new Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Programme (ASAP), aimed at helping smallholder farmers adapt to climate change, Dr. Grainger-Jones said information on weather can also be integrated into insurance systems for farmers. “This approach,” he explained “known as weather index insurance, provides a safety net in times of weather-related crop disasters.”

Explaining the importance of the early warning systems, Dr. Grainger-Jones said a system that operates over the course of days or weeks can help predict pest outbreaks and flood risks, and determine planting and harvest times. He cited situations in areas where production is often threatened by sudden-onset disasters such as flooding, and said “the development of an early warning system can give farmers those few days of extra preparation that can represent the difference between saving and losing their crops.”  

Currently, in addition to weather updates by GMet, some organizations are providing weather information to a few farming communities. But more of such localized services will be required as soon as possible to enable farmers plan their activities, undertake or withhold sowing, irrigate crops or not, know when to apply fertilizer or not, determine whether to start complete harvesting or to withhold it, arrange when to store and transport food crops, and work out how to protect their livestock. From the foregoing, one can conclude that weather forecasting is an incentive for farmers. 

(The blogger is also a correspondent on climate change, environment and science for the Business and Financial Times/The Public Agenda)

 

UN Calls for Urgent Action on Climate Change

Increasing and intense heat waves, severe storms, erratic rainfall patterns and sea level rise, are some of the climate change related events that are affecting every sector of development including agriculture and food production, water, forestry and wildlife, health, energy and transportation.  Experts agree that climate change is now a development issue, because it encompasses the economy, health, national security, food security, land use and natural resources exploitation, energy, finance and has implications for poverty alleviation and sustainable livelihoods.

Therefore, the international community has for over 30 years now been adopting measures to either mitigate or adapt to the phenomenon. The Untied Nations (UN) for example has been using the to draw global attention to climate change and its related issues.  This year for instance, the UN has used some of the annual celebration of “Specially Designated Days” – World Meteorological Day (March 23^rd), International Day for Biological Diversity (May 22^nd), and World Environment Day (June 5^th) – to draw attention to different aspects of climate change that require urgent attention.

World Meteorological Day celebration was on “weather and climate: engaging the youth.” It focused on encouraging young people to learn more about the weather and climate system, and contribute to action on climate change.  The youth was the focus because they will benefit from the dramatic advances being made to understand and forecast the earth’s weather and climate. At the same time, most of them will live into the second half of this century and experience the increasing impacts of global warming.

Both, the International Day for Biological Diversity and World Environment Day, served to raise awareness of the threat of extinction facing island biodiversity as a result of climate change events such as rising sea levels among other things.

Benefits of Biodiversity

Generally, biodiversity support the delivery of a range of ecosystem services including clean water, soil fertility and enhancing agricultural productivity. Research findings on the contribution of biodiversity to poverty alleviation, indicate that biodiversity provides the poor with a form of cost effective and readily accessible insurance against risk, particularly food security risks, risk from environmental hazards and health risks.

Islands constitute less than 5% of the Earth's landmass yet provide habitat for 20% of all bird, reptile and plant species. Islands harbour more than 50% of the world's known marine biodiversity, seven of the world's 10 coral reef hotspots and 10 of its 34 conservation hotspots. Research indicates that many island species on land and sea are found nowhere else on earth.  Scientists consider these island biodiversity resources as “legacies of a unique evolutionary heritage, they hold the promise of future discoveries from medicines and foods to biofuels.”

According to the UN, biodiversity is integral to the subsistence, income, well-being and cultural identity of the about 63 million island dwellers around the world.  Half of the world’s marine resources lie in island waters, while biodiversity-based industries including tourism and fisheries account for more than half the gross domestic product (GDP) of Small Island Developing States (SIDS).  Coral reefs alone are said to provide an estimated $375 billion annual returns in goods and services.  SIDS includes Jamaica, St. Lucia, Barbados, and Trinidad and Tobago.

Climate Change and Island Biodiversity

Yet the biodiversity of these islands is at risk. Due to the vulnerability of their endemic biodiversity and their intense human use, islands have higher extinction rates. For example, research findings indicate that 64% of all recorded extinctions in recent human history happened on islands. Extinction rates for mammals are 177 times higher in island ecosystems than the average globally.

In his message to commemorate Biodiversity Day, UN Secretary Genera,l Ban Ki Moon, commended SIDS for demonstrating a growing understanding of the links between healthy ecosystems and human well-being, as a way of building their resilience in the face of growing threats from sea level rise. He urged nations to make a commitment “to adopting, adapting and scaling up best practices, so we can protect fragile ecosystems for the benefit of all the islanders and indeed people everywhere who depend on them.”

In her message for World Environment Day, Executive Secretary of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, Monique Barbut noted that “often, the loss of territory, of key sources of economic development and growth or of livelihoods are triggers of political turmoil and instability. These challenges are daily realities for the SIDS as sea-level rise, and more powerful cyclones and rainfall continually damage their land and fresh water sources,” adding, “SIDs are doing what they can to avoid internal turmoil by acting on soil erosion, which is silting the coasts, destroying coral and causing fish to retreat deeper into the ocean…”

Ms. Barbut said the world is better off environmentally today, and will be into the future, because SIDS took a moral stand on climate change. “They have been firm and persistent about taking action to avoid the harm climate change poses for everyone, including present and future generations. They have called on big nations to lead by action and broken rank with the groups they would normally align with for support in order for intractable issues on climate change to be resolved.

The Executive Secretary for the Convention on Biological Diversity, Braulio Ferreira de Souza Dias, elaborated on the impacts of climate change on island biodiversity. “…the special characteristics of islands and island biodiversity also make them highly vulnerable to a large range of potential impacts from climate change. Climate change and ocean acidification threaten marine resources, such as coral reefs that are suffering the effects of bleaching, pollution and other stressors,” he said. Mr. de Souza Dias added that “projected sea-level rise poses a high risk for low-lying islands and their coastal resources, such as corals, mangroves and reef fish.”

UN Conventions that Address Climate Change

He therefore called for the implementation of the Aichi Biodiversity Target 10, which recognizes the need to minimize pressures on coral reefs and other ecosystems impacted by climate change and ocean acidification. The Aichi Biodiversity Targets are 20 goals that make up part of the Convention on Biological Diversity's Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020, adopted in Nagoya, Japan, in 2010. The targets provide a framework for action by all stakeholders—including cities—to save biodiversity and enhance its benefits for people.

 In the view of Mr. de Souza Dias , “appropriately designed, ecosystem restoration and management of inland  and coastal biodiversity including seagrasses, salt marshes, mangroves and forest ecosystems, can also increase carbon sequestration and decrease emissions from ecosystem degradation, thereby contributing to climate change mitigation.” To this end, his call for the strengthening of collaboration in the implementation of three of Rio’s historic environmental agreement can be considered as timely and appropriate.  The Conventions namely – The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification and the Convention on Biological Diversity , address in an inter-related way, the challenges of climate change, land degradation and biodiversity loss, all of which are of great relevance to islands and island biodiversity.  

Relevance for Ghana

The celebrations of this year’s specially designated UN Days have significance for Ghana as a signatory to the UN Conventions. The significance of this year’s World meteorological Day, International Biodiversity Day and World Environment Day, for the country also border’s on the focus for the celebrations – climate change.  Experts have predicted that developing countries in particular, Ghana inclusive, will suffer most from the impacts of climate change. Research has confirmed that the country is highly sensitive to climate change events because 80 % of her economy is natural resources based.

The call to countries to hasten efforts in address climate change related problems is opportune in the face of unjustifiable destruction of the nation’s biodiversity.  It is indeed, a sad development in the country’s history that biologically endemic sites that were preserved for posterity should now be destroyed when they are most needed.  Almost all of the country’s Globally Significant Biodiversity Areas (GSBAs) including the Atewa Range Forest Reserve have been degraded.  

Concerned individuals, state officials and communities who have dared to raise their voices at these destructive activities have been ignored.  In the process, aged trees that have attained ceremonial prominence and have become master exhibits in urban afforestation within Accra, have been felled in the name of beautification.  Now it is the Aburi Botanical Gardens that has been made to succumb to the powers that be. The Aburi Botenical Gardens and the Bunsu Arboretum qualify as part of the country’s climate change mitigating measures in the area of preserving and regenerating endemic plants species.

The Chairman of the National Biodiversity Committee, Professor Alfred Oteng Yeboah has stressed the important role of biodiversity in combating climate change.  He said even though Ghana is not an island, her coastal and marine biological resources as well as wetland areas and even forest biodiversity are all under similar threats facing island biodiversity.  Professor Oteng Yeboah who is also a Lecturer at the Botany Department of the University of Ghana, Legon, called for intensive public education and awareness raising on the importance of protecting our biodiversity. He said this is essential because “vibrant and healthy biodiversity is relevant for poverty reduction and human well-being.”

(This item has already been published in the Tuesday June 10th, 2014 edition of the Business and Financial Times)